Concerns about the effect that the recent drought might have on Brazil’s forthcoming coffee crop have been alleviated by rainfall in February 2015, although damage has undoubtedly been done to the crop. As a result of the rainfall, prices plunged, but a price spike is not out of the question.
Speaking to C&CI early in March 2015, Joel Widenor, Founder, Chief Administrative Officer and Director of Agriculture Services at CommodityWX said the next Brazilian coffee crop had a rough start to the growing season in many key areas of Brazil due to the ongoing effects of long-term drought conditions and inconsistent rains. This led to some initial delays to flowering in late 2014 and meant that the crop was always either under stress or on the verge of stress for the first part of the growing season. However, as he explained, timely rains occurred in February and appeared likely to continue.
He told C&CI that although long-term rainfall deficits remain, improved topsoil moisture is helping to improve conditions during late development and reduce the risk for notable yield impacts, despite the earlier dryness. “We do not have a specific production forecast, but this timely late-season rain could keep yields from falling below the trend line this season,” he said.
The CNC’s Executive President, Silas Brasileiro, told C&CI that he expects the forthcoming 2015/2016 harvest will produce 40.3 million to 43.25 million bags. This is based on a survey commissioned by the National Coffee Council and conducted by Procafé Foundation. The forecast was based on in situ examination of 2,700 farms across the coffee belt. “The Brazilian harvest of Arabica coffee should be between a minimum of 30.0 million and a maximum of 32.15 million bags,” he explained. “The Robusta harvest will be 10.3-11.1 million bags.
For more information see the forthcoming May 2015 issue of Coffee & Cocoa International.