Researchers at CIAT have mapped which areas of the world will continue to be suitable for growing Arabica coffee in future. The results of their study show that Arabica will be significantly hit by temperature increases of more than two degrees Celsius and rainfall changes, and that production will have to move to cooler areas to survive.
“For the first time, we’ve collected enough regional data to show that coffee farmers must compensate for higher temperatures to survive,” said Dr Peter Läderach, co-author of the report and senior climate change specialist for the global CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is led by Colombia-based International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).
Major producers – including Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and Colombia – together producing 65 per cent of global market share, are set to experience severe losses by 2050, if adaptation measures are not taken.
Generally, they say, coffee will need to move 300m to 500m further above sea level, depending on location, to survive.
For more information, see the forthcoming July 2015 issue of Coffee & Cocoa International.