The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its estimate of the global supply surplus in the 2016/17 crop year, which is drawing to a close, slightly downwards.
It put the surplus at 371,000 tons, although this would still constitute a record level. Previously a surplus of 382,000 tons had been predicted. Somewhat higher demand than originally expected by the ICCO was the reason for the downward revision.
Global cocoa grinding was revised upwards by 20,000 to 4.28 million tons, putting it 3.7 per cent up on the year-on-year level. This had already been suggested by the available grinding figures for Europe, North America and Asia. Global cocoa production was likewise revised up 8,000 to 4.70 million tons. This equates to a year-on-year increase of 18.1 per cent.
Commerzbank Research said the record surplus is attributable to a massive expansion of supply. Cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire is set to exceed the 2 million ton mark for the first time – last year’s crop in the world’s largest producer country totalled 1.58 million tons.
The cocoa price did not react significantly to the new estimates and was trading below US$2,000 per ton.
Commerzbank said attention is already focused on the 2017/18 season, about which the ICCO has not yet released figures.