Brazil is set to harvest a record coffee crop this year, with state forecasting agency Conab increasing its estimate for the harvest that has been underway since early April to 58.04 million bags.
As Commerzbank Research noted, last year’s crop was only 44.97 million bags. This year, almost the same amount is expected in terms of Arabica production alone (44.33 million bags), with Robusta coffee adding another 13.71 million bags.
Conab’s estimates are not the highest, however. Some market observers expect a crop in excess of 60 million bags.
The expectation of a record crop is the main reason why the Arabica coffee price has been under pressure since last summer and fell in April to a two-year low of 115 US cents per pound. The price is trading not far off that level currently.