Plans by Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana to coordinate cocoa exports in a bid to avoid oversupply and prevent cocoa prices from slumping as they did in 2017 have met with scepticism.
The low prices generated painful income losses for cocoa farmers and put a heavy burden on national coffers.
Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana combined account for around 60 per cent of global cocoa production, so they would seem to have scope to steer supply and prices in their best interests.
However, as Commerzbank also noted, there were a number of international agreements in the past aimed at stabilising revenues of cocoa-producing countries, and they did not achieve lasting success.
“The agreement that has been in place since 2010 is designed to reduce acreage so that 300,000 tonnes less cocoa are produced,” said Commerzbank. “The record-high global crop in 2016/17 looks like it will put paid to this attempt, too.”