The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised upwards its assessment of Vietnam’s marketing year (MY) 2018/2019 production by approximately 2 per cent, to 30.4 million bags, green bean equivalent (GBE).
Accordingly, the USDA has revised MY18/19 exports up, to 25.5 million bags of green coffee, compared to the earlier number of 25.2 million bags. In MY17/18, the USDA revised its export estimate up, to 27.9 million bags from 27.7 million bags.
The USDA said that during the MY18/19 production cycle there was adequate rainfall during all stages of crop development. During the flowering stage, rains were especially good. Industry sources estimated that production would increase by 8 per cent compared to the previous year. However, heavy rain later caused flowers to drop early in the cherry setting stage. That led industry to revise production estimates downwards by 3 per cent compared to the previous year. More recently, the USDA confirmed that despite flower loss rain had prompted coffee trees to generate larger cherries and, together adequate inputs, this increased production to about 4 per cent over the previous year.
According to Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa (VICOFA), Vietnam planned to replant 120,000 hectares of coffee between 2014 and 2020. At the end of calendar year 2017, the replanted area was over 98,000 hectares but because young, recently replanted trees do not produce, the replanting scheme has suppressed overall coffee production in the short-run.