In its first estimate for 2019/20, the forecasting agency Conab is predicting a Brazilian coffee crop of 50.5-54.5 million bags, which is lower than figures from some other observers.
As Commerzbank Research reported recently, this would constitute a sizeable decline as compared to the last record crop of 61.7 million bags.
“That said, a significant shortfall has long been envisaged because Arabica is facing a lower-yield year in the two-year cycle,” Commerzbank said.
The anticipated crop volume would still be at record level for a low-yield year.
According to Conab, 36.1-38.1 million bags of Arabica and 14.4-16.3 million bags of Robusta are likely to be harvested.